Throwing Money Around (Week 8)

$9,850…

After successfully picking college game after college game, the damned NFL screwed me.  Damn you NFL… Damn you.  I’m going to have to stick to the college game, I guess… maybe throw in one NFL game if it looks obvious.  Unfortunately the “obvious” NFL picks are completely backwards.  So, here we go again, throwing more money around and trying to creep back above the ten grand starting point.

Prepare to watch me lose money.

Wake Forest at Maryland

Line:  Wake by 2.5

Bet:  Wake Forest

Why:  The Terps started the season looking laughably bad, being the regular target of ridicule as the scores ticked by on my television.  For a second, they seemed to bounce back, looking like a real football team… until they were shut out and blown out by VIRGINIA last week.  To put that in perspective, Virginia isn’t just bad, they’re “we can’t beat Duke” bad (and yes, I know that Duke is better this year, but they’re still Duke).  The Deacons, however, have a pretty good team on their hands, losing only to Navy (and if you’ve followed this blog you should be aware that Navy is pretty good this year).  Wake Forest doesn’t win by huge margins, relying on their defense to shut down the opposition, but expect to see at least a three point margin of victory.

Wager:  $750 on Wake

Connecticut at Rutgers

Line:  Uconn by 1

Bet:  Uconn

Why:  That Miami job is looking better all the time, isn’t it Schiano?  This line blows my mind… Rutgers is awful this year, allowing 156 yards per game on the ground with their 79th ranked rush defense.  Pair that against one of the most explosive backs in the game in Donald Brown and you have a potential slaughter on your hands.  Uconn averages 240 yards on the ground per game, the math here is really, really simple.  It’s going to be a big win.  In fact, I think Brown already has 50 yards.  Done.  Mark it.  Done.

Wager:  $1500 on Connecticut

North Carolina at Virginia

Line:  UNC by 4.5

Bet:  North Carolina

Why:  North Carolina has quietly put together a very impressive football team this year.  There aren’t any huge stars, they don’t lean heavily to one form of offense or defense, they’re just a very average team playing very average football at every position.  However, being average at EVERY position = not being weak at ANY position… unlike Virginia, which appears to be weak at every position.  North Carolina is battle-tested, playing a schedule of “better than you think” teams week after week (VA Tech, Miami, Uconn, Notre Dame) while Virginia struggles to put together half-assed wins against anyone that will give them an opening.  The Tarheels won’t give them that opening, they win big.

Wager:  $750 on North Carolina

Southern California at Washington State

Line:  42.5

Bet:  Washington State

Why:  Washington State sucks, and they will undoubtedly lose this game.  However, 42.5 points is a really, really large spread.  I mean, really large.  USC hasn’t beaten anyone by that kind of margin since blowing out (the word of the week) Virginia in week 1, and while they will likely feast on the Cougars’ carcass, that margin of victory would require the 95 Danville Admirals to play the 95 Powell County Pirates.  I could be wrong, and I’m a little shaky on this one, but I’m picking Washington State to barely cover this one just on the sheer amount of destruction it would require to cover that spread.

Wager:  $500 on Washington State

Michigan at Penn State

Line:  Penn State by 24.5

Bet:  Penn State

Why:  This could be completely wrong, and I’m aware of that.  The makings for a blowout are there.  Keep in mind that Penn State folks HATE Michigan folks.  The game is at home.  Michigan lost to Toledo and barely knocked off Wisconsin.  Wisconsin lost by 41 to Penn State last week.  Ok, enough with abrupt sentences, I’m taking the Lions based solely on what I’ve seen these teams do this year.  I’ve watched Michigan flounder around like they’ve forgotten how to play this game while watching Penn State look like the best team in the country.  This is a game with history and intensity in the air, and one that Penn State will want to win convincingly.  Unfortunately for the Wolverines, Penn State only seems to see “convincing” as winning by 100 points.

Bet:  $500 on Penn State

LSU at South Carolina

Line:  LSU by 2.5

Bet:  LSU

Why:  South Carolina isn’t that bad, but they aren’t that good.  Let’s face it, Kentucky has no offense whatsoever, and minus a few mistakes they would have absolutely beaten South Carolina.  LSU, however, is much better than Kentucky and isn’t likely to make those same mistakes.  I think this is the official battle of the overrated/underrated teams this week, with the Fighting Chickens being trounced by the Bayou Bengals at home.  LSU wins by ten… not by three.  Thus redeeming themselves, spurning Spurrier and enabling me to collect a cool grand in the process.

Wager:  $1000 on LSU

San Diego Chargers at Buffalo Bills

Line:  Buffalo by .5

Bet:  San Diego

Why:  The Chargers were my pre-season pick to win it all this year, and after a slow start I’ve been looking might stupid.  However, Tomlinson is practicing, rumor has it that Chambers could be back in action and the mighty Buffalo defense has shown a few cracks in the last couple of weeks.  Tomlinson has a long history of great games at Buffalo and is clearly looking for a breakout week, which might just be this one.  I’m not saying that this one is pretty or that it’s a huge win for the Chargers, but I am putting my money where my mouth is and saying that they’ll win the game.  Since the line is half a point (and I’m yet to see a team score half a point), a win is a win.  Of course, since this is my only NFL bet this week, you should immediately bet on Buffalo.

Wager:  $1000 on San Diego

Well, I’m ready to lose money this week.  The games seem too good to be true in a couple of  instances, which will certainly mean that they are.  I’m just hoping that some collegiate success will make up for the absolute rock-solid guarantee that San Diego will screw me out of a thousand bucks.  Sigh… so goes gambling.