Throwing Money Around (Week 4)

After slinging money around like a drunken sailor last week, I managed to nearly break even. While that’s certainly better than a loss, it’s really pretty disheartening to put that much effort into what amounts to a tie. However, I shall soldier on this week, putting my money where my mouth is and attempting to build on my remaining $7,600.

Now, if only one of my damned “locks” would pay off.

Temple at Penn State

Line: Penn State by 28

Bet: Temple

Why: The bubble has to burst eventually. The Penn State offense looks like last year’s New England Patriots (and I mean if they were playing in the Big Ten), but you can’t continue to whip opponents by 30+ points every week… it just can’t happen. Don’t get me wrong, Penn State wins this game and they win big. However, Temple’s defense proved to be a little more stout than expected last week. It isn’t as if Temple has a shot to really run up the score and make a game of this one, just that their defense SHOULD have the capability to make it a 21-24 point game… not 28. I will predict now that I will regret this bet by Saturday afternoon.

Wager: $500 on Temple

Buffalo at Missouri

Line: Mizzou by 34

Bet: Buffalo

Why: Missouri doesn’t just win games, they destroy the competition. However, in games with reasonable opponents, the tiger defense isn’t exactly great at keeping the opposition off of the field. I’m not suggesting that Buffalo is in the same league as Missouri, however I will point out that the Bulls have thus far blown out UTEP, played close with Pittsburgh and defeated Temple… covering the spread in each of their first four games. Much like the game listed above, the final score should likely be a blowout, just not necessarily a 34 point blowout.

Wager: $500 on Buffalo

Fresno State at Toledo

Line: Fresno State by 7

Bet: Fresno State

Why: The Bulldogs worked their way into the top 25 this season, only to be booted out at the hand of a tough loss in a close game to a superior Wisconsin team. Fresno State will be up for this game, attempting to push their way back into the polls and attach a number (albeit in the 20’s) to their name. Toledo isn’t exactly a bad team, but the gaping holes in their defense will be incapable of shutting down certain aspects of Fresno’s ground attack. Look for RB Ryan Matthews to have a big day against a Toledo defense that ranks 71st in the nation at stopping the run, and if the Bulldogs can hold Wisconsin to 13 points, don’t be surprised if Toledo never makes it onto the board.

Wager: $1000 on Fresno State

UL Monroe at Tulane

Line: Tulane by 6

Bet: Tulane

Why: I’ve got to admit, this one is a bit of a stab in the dark. However, I’m pretty damned confident and I’ll tell you why. Last week, The Green Wave nearly toppled a very good ECU team at home. The disappointment from that loss has to still be in the mind of the fans and the teams, and the next poor bastard is going to be a sacrificial lamb… enter UL Monroe. The Warhawks don’t have a single offensive or defensive category rated higher than 70th in the nation (slipping into triple digits on more than one occasion) and in the last meeting between the teams Tulane won by a score of 52-9. I’ll admit, this feels a little bit like a trap game, but I have to go with my gut and say “what are they thinking?” I will likely also regret this one next week.

Wager: $750 on Tulane

Florida at Tennessee

Line: Florida by 7.5

Bet: Florida

Why: As we’ve seen by analyzing the matchups, Tennessee just isn’t as good as expected. Florida, however, IS as good as expected… if not better. Even though the game is in Knoxville, a 7.5 point margin shouldn’t be too hard for the Gators to overcome. The Miami defense did everything imaginable to keep Tebow and company in check, but by the end of the game the ‘Canes seemed to be wearing down while the superior Gator athletes were just getting started. Since this is an old-school SEC rivalry, the possibility for an upset is very real, even if it isn’t quite real enough to warrant taking Tennessee.

Wager: $250 on Florida

Cincinnati Bengals at New York Giants

Line: Giants by 14

Bet: Bengals

Why: Make no mistake, the Bengals are awful. However, a fourteen point spread in any NFL game is hard to pass up. It isn’t as if Cincinnati is completely without weapons and completely out matched in this game, the problem is that those weapons seem to be misfiring and shooting people in the foot on a weekly basis. However, Cincinnati is due for an explosion… maybe not this week, but I don’t see the Giants (a good, but not great) team winning by that kind of a margin.

Wager: $500 on Cincinnati

Arizona Cardinals at Washington Redskins

Line: Washington by 3.5

Bet: Arizona

Why: For reasons that I can’t completely understand, people are either sleeping on our outright ignoring the Arizona Cardinals. Let’s face it, they may not be the most glamorous team in the league, but they have a very strong defense, a veteran QB, two dynamic playmakers downfield and a 1-2 punch of Edgerrin James and Tim Hightower that has proven very capable of moving the ball. Washington, on the other hand, is unimpressive defensively and relies on a young QB in a new system to keep the defense honest and allow Portis to move the ball. If anything, this game will come down to one crucial factor… Washington will not be capable of stopping Fitz and Boldin from breaking wide open on multiple occasions. This one should be a gimmie.

Wager: $750 on Arizona

Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49’ers

Line: San Francisco by 3.5

Bet: Niners

Why: While San Francisco isn’t an elite team by any standard, they appear to be a team on the rise. J.T. O’Sullivan (or Jay-T’Oh as I like to call him) is proving himself to be very comfortable and very capable in the Niners offense, while Frank Gore is starting to look like the Gore we were promised last season. On the defensive side of the ball, San Fran has been capable… which means more than you’d think when you’re comparing to the Detroit defense. Detroit can’t stop the run, can’t stop the pass and most likely couldn’t stop the SF Cheerleaders if they decided to suit up and take the field. While this is probably the worst game of the week to watch, it should be a very safe way to collect a few extra dollars.

Wager: $750 on San Francisco

So, there it is. Another week, another five grand up in the air. I’d suggest that I’m “confident” this week, but I’ve been “confident” every week, and where has it gotten me. Nope, this week I’m taking a different approach. I’m terrified. I’m meek, I’m afraid and I’m certain that I’m going to lose all of my money. I’m going to have to work three jobs to pay my bills and will likely have my fake children taken away by the state, and rightfully so as I have a terrible gambling problem and am jeopardizing their fake futures.

Poor kids… it’s a shame that their mama ran off.

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3 Responses to “Throwing Money Around (Week 4)”

  1. Jared Says:

    Just put down a 5$ parlay on betus.com. That Washington and Arizona game is ridiculous. Without taking points and just predicting outright winners I put down a 4 team parlay:

    Arizona over Washington (+165)
    Pittsburgh over Philly (+165)
    Cleveland over Baltimore (+115)

    And the only real risk in my opinion

    St. Louis over Seattle (+375) (That offense really can’t be that bad can it?)

    Hopefully I am going to be 330$ richer after Sunday.

    Also they have the Carolina Panthers, which are getting Steve Smith back this week, as underdogs right now to the Minnesota Vikings which are boasting Gus Frerotte at QB, nobody at WR, and Peterson as a game time decision. I wonder how long that will last.

  2. Kevin Says:

    Other than “Peterson as a game time decision,” I have NO IDEA what Jared just said.

  3. Jared Says:

    I know, I had a hard time reading it myself.

    Gus Frerotte at starting quarterback? Somewhere Vinny Testaverde, Doug Floutie, and Jeff George all got a tingly warm feeling.

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