Tackle Football Recap/Throwing Money Around (Week 5)

Sorry folks, delays got me all sidetracked this week and I wasn’t able to get the footblog up and running at the usual time. Sorry about that, I promise to be back on schedule next week, hopefully with another live blog of Monday Night Football. So now, a short recap of last week’s action before we get to this week’s gambling: Last week would have been a pretty successful run, had it not been for the awesome power of Penn State and the weenie behavior of Fresno State. However, in the long run I came out $250 to the positive. Nothing quite like wagering thousands of dollars and eventually winning $250… but as the last few weeks have proven, it could have been worse. So here I am, with $7,850. Considering how many complete blowout days I’ve had this year that kind of change really isn’t as bad as I would have figured I’d be at this point. First, your recap from this past weekend (condensed for your pleasure):

Do not expect Brian Griese to throw for 400 yards again this season… maybe ever.

Steve Slaton is the real deal.

Ronnie Brown had the game of his, or damn near anyone’s life.

Buffalo will win the AFC East while New England might not make the playoffs.

Frighteningly, Philadelphia’s defense looked better than the offense.

No one can stop USC (except for apparently Oregon State)

Penn State is the best team in the Big Ten… maybe the country.

Forget the big names, the two best RBs in the game right now are Donald Brown (UConn) and Javon Ringer (Michigan State), who have combined for 1400 yards and 21 touchdowns in three weeks.

Chase Daniel could be a monster NFL QB.

Some kid named Darius Passmore is leading everyone you’ve ever heard of in receiving yards at the moment… I’m hoping this holds true for the whole season, as there are so many “Pass More” jokes to be made.

Now, on to the gambling!

Tennessee at Auburn

Line: Auburn by 6.5

Bet: Tennessee

Why: The Vols are really doing their best to make a fool out of me this year. After predicting that they’d be an SEC sleeper, I’m now convinced that they’re very capable of losing to Kentucky for the first time in over two decades. Auburn, however, is extremely good and should be treated as such. The Tigers aren’t the best when it comes to putting points on the board, but they’re extremely good at keeping their opponents from doing the same. Tennessee won’t win this game, but I’m betting that they cover the spread based on the fact that everyone covers the spread against Auburn… except for maybe LSU. The Tigers win this one, but not by 7.

Wager: $250 on Tennessee

Michigan State at Indiana

Line: Michigan State by 8

Bet: Michigan State

Why: This Michigan State team has looked pretty impressive through the start of the season. Led by potential superstar Javon Ringer, the Spartans seem to be capable of handling (within reason) just about anyone in or out of the conference… which certainly includes Indiana. This is the same Hoosier team that was blown out by Ball State last week (screwing countless gamblers), which may not be an indication of a total meltdown as Ball State might be just a little better than people expect. However, toppling Indiana will be no problem for this Spartan team, winning by double digits in the Hoosier’s back yard.

Wager: $750 on Michigan State

Northwestern at Iowa

Line: Iowa by 9

Bet: Northwestern

Why: Both of these teams have the ability to keep the game close, and Iowa’s defense is pretty stout against the run. However, Iowa hasn’t faced a runner quite like Tyrell Sutton this season. Pittsburgh’s LeSean McCoy was able to hit the Hawkeyes for 78 yards and a score in only 18 attempts, which isn’t exactly what they should expect from Northwestern. While I’m expecting to see the Wildcats post their first loss of the season in this one, I don’t expect a 9 point smack down to go scrolling across my ticker on Saturday.

Wager: $500 on Northwestern

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars

Line: Jacksonville by 7.5

Bet: Houston

Why: Jacksonville (a sexy pre-season pick for a run in the playoffs) has managed to start this year at 1-2… although it’s hard to suggest that they SHOULDN’T be 0-3. They’ve dropped games to Tennessee, Buffalo at home and barely knocked off Indianapolis with a field goal at the last second. This isn’t the kind of play that really inspires confidence. Granted, Houston really isn’t much better. They’ve been thoroughly whipped in their first two games, but despite a loss to an incredibly tough Titans defense in week three, it appears that there was some actual chemistry beginning to come together for the team after their surprise bye week. Look for Steve Slaton to manhandle the Jags defensive line and for Andre Johnson to finally have his breakout game against the Jacksonville secondary.

Wager: $500 on Houston

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs

Line: Denver by 9

Bet: Denver

Why: Jay Cutler seems to have finally morphed into the QB that we all expected to see last season, and the recently un-suspended Brandon Marshall is looking like this year’s Randy Moss. While Denver’s defense hasn’t exactly been shutting the opposition down this year, it’s possible to suggest that no defense is really needed against the Chiefs… a team that has managed to put up 32 total points this season and 397 total passing yards from their revolving door of quarterbacks (slightly more than Cutler put up in one game against a tough San Diego defense). This one is a no-brainer… Denver ROLLS in this game on their way to making my Super Bowl prediction look absolutely ridiculous.

Wager: $1000 on Denver

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys

Line: Dallas by 11.5

Bet: Washington

Why: It appears that week one of the Redskins’ season was a bit of a fluke. Jason Campbell looked incapable of learning a new offense, the passing game was completely off mark, and it took until the 2nd half for Clinton Portis to finally start calling his own damned plays and getting the ball moving. Now, with that game in the past, the Redskins are starting to look like a real football team. After watching the shootout on Monday Night Football, it has become obvious that you CAN beat Dallas through the air (as we once may have doubted), so look for Campbell to hit Moss and Randle El for completion after completion, balancing things out with a 100 yard day for Clinton Portis. It’s still the Cowboys’ game to win, but not by 12.

Wager: $1000 on Washington

Arizona Cardinals at New York Jets

Line: Jets by 2.5

Bet: Arizona

Why: Phillip Rivers was able to dominate the Jets through the air, and Phillip Rivers doesn’t have Anquan Boldin or Larry Fitzgerald. Thomas Jones should have a good day against the Cardinals defense, but in what will likely amount to a shootout, the Jets simply can’t keep up. Kurt Warner makes Rex Grossman look downright conservative when it comes to throwing the deep ball, and his tandem of absolutely dynamic receivers have the explosive ability to make those long-bomb dreams come true in every game. Edgerrin James will pick up his usual 80 or so yards, Tim Hightower will break through for a score, Boldin and Fitz will torch the NY secondary… Cardinals win big.

Wager: $750 on Arizona

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders

Line: San Diego by 7.5

Bet: San Diego

Why: One really key reason here… LT is looking more and more like LT every day. Early this season I watched a fantasy football pre-game show on ESPN in which Warren Sapp made one of my favorite comments of the year thus far, “When you play Oakland, you run the ball… trust me, I know.” When you’re looking for a team to run the ball, you need to look no further than the Chargers. Even if Tomlinson is only at around 80%, he’s still better than most of the other backs in the league. Even if LT’s head falls off in the 2nd quarter, Darren Sproles appears to be better than at least half of the backs in the league. Add to that Oakland’s total ineptitude to stop the pass and Rivers’ growing comfort with his receivers and you have the makings of a serious blowout.

Wager: $250 on San Diego

San Francisco 49’ers at New Orleans Saints

Line: New Orleans by 6.5

Bet: San Francisco

Why: Much to the surprise of damn near everyone, J.T. O’Sullivan looks really sharp this year. In the first weeks of this early season, we’ve seen New Orleans completely unable to stop the passing game, despite what should have been a fairly capable secondary. The Niners like to throw the ball… they really like it, the Saints won’t enjoy that. Add to the mix the completely depleted New Orleans WR corps (Colston is out, Shockey is out, Patten is injured) and you have a single minded team… it’s San Francisco vs. Reggie Bush. While I like Reggie to be a monster this year, I don’t hold out high hopes for any one player to defeat a young, but promising team. While I’m still just betting the spread on this game, I’ll make the prediction that not only does San Fran cover, they’re going to win this one.

Wager: $1000 on San Francisco

I’ve upped the ante this week, tossing another grand worth of wagers into the mix. So we’re looking at six thousand dollars potentially exchanging hands before it’s all said and done. This could be the week that breaks me, or the week that launches me into the stratosphere. I’ve decided to bet a little more heavily on the NFL action this time around, as I’m considerably better at picking those games than these ever-mysterious college matchups (hey, my Pigskin Pick ‘Em rating on ESPN.com is 91.7!) So, let’s see how it works out. I’m hoping for the best, assuming the worst, and I’m sure that no matter how correct I happen to be on this blog, I’ll still find a way to lose actual money with a couple of real wagers this weekend. I guess I’ll just have to convince myself that pride is worth more than money. Unless I lose both… then it’s just sad.

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5 Responses to “Tackle Football Recap/Throwing Money Around (Week 5)”

  1. Jamie Holts Says:

    Nice writing style. I look forward to reading more in the future.

  2. Kevin Hall Says:

    You’re sooooo wrong on that Tennessee game.

  3. Aaron Says:

    I have to agree with Kevin on Tennessee. They are weak this year. Auburn will beath them by 10+, mark it down. And I will say right now that Kentucky will beat Tennessee this year. By the tame that game rolls around, Fulmer will be on his way out and the UT program will be in crisis mode. They will have lost 5-7 games by then already.

    Go all in on Denver. They’ll beat the Chiefs by 20. I get the Chiefs down here every week and they are AWFUL.

  4. Kevin Hall Says:

    Aaron, I’ve never read a sentence by you quite as sad as the one you just posted : “I get the Chiefs down here every week …”

    Honestly, my friend, I am sorry.

  5. shane Says:

    hahahahahahahahahaha

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